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Investigating the essential impact of the cryptocurrency market on carbon emissions is significant for the U.S. to realize carbon neutrality. This exploration employs low-frequency vector auto-regression (LF-VAR) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) models to capture the complicated interrelationship between cryptocurrency policy uncertainty (CPU) and carbon emission (CE) and to answer the question of whether cryptocurrency policy uncertainty could facilitate U.S. carbon neutrality. By comparison, the MF-VAR model possesses a higher explanatory power than the LF-VAR model;the former's impulse response indicates a negative CPU effect on CE, suggesting that cryptocurrency policy uncertainty is a promoter for the U.S. to realize the goal of carbon neutrality. In turn, CE positively impacts CPU, revealing that mass carbon emissions would raise public and national concerns about the environmental damages caused by cryptocurrency transactions and mining. Furthermore, CPU also has a mediation effect on CE;that is, CPU could affect CE through the oil price (OP). In the context of a more uncertain cryptocurrency market, valuable insights for the U.S. could be offered to realize carbon neutrality by reducing the traditional energy consumption and carbon emissions of cryptocurrency trading and mining.
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This paper investigates the dynamics and drivers of informational inefficiency in the Bitcoin futures market. To quantify the adaptive pattern of informational inefficiency, we leverage two groups of statistics which measure long memory and fractal dimension to construct a global-local market inefficiency index. Our findings validate the adaptive market hypothesis, and the global and local inefficiency exhibits different patterns and contributions. Regarding the driving factors of the time-varying inefficiency, our results suggest that trading activity of retailers (hedgers) increases (decreases) informational inefficiency. Compared to hedgers and retailers, the role played by speculators is more likely to be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Extremely bullish and bearish investor sentiment has more significant impact on the local inefficiency. Arbitrage potential, funding liquidity, and the pandemic exert impacts on the global and local inefficiency differently. No significant evidence is found for market liquidity and policy uncertainty related to cryptocurrency.
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This research concentrates on ransomware attacks and their effects in local government. With attacks dating back to the late 1980's, this classification of malware has shifted its focus from end-users to a more lucrative high-profile, big-game hunting style. This resurgence in recent years has proven that the size and variety of threats faced today needs solutions to efficiently identify and examine more comprehensive ransomware security strategies. In this research, the evidence dictates that it is necessary to broaden current security methods to protect local government and municipality systems as well as data from the ever-increasing number of ransomware attacks. In favor of this assertion, the beginning of the research will examine the evolution of ransomware, its damaging characteristics, and its advancements. Furthermore, the financial and economic impacts these attacks have on local governments is outlined. This will be fol-lowed by methodologies with results and findings to outline a wireless audit and a survey of government employees. Finally, defense-in-depth measures to mitigate the proliferation of ransomware outbreaks will be defined. © International Association for Computer Information Systems. All Rights Reserved.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has been causing unprecedented economic downturn worldwide. As it wreaks havoc on every aspect of global economic activities, stakeholders are wondering how its impact can be quantified to craft viable responses. In the exotic field of cryptocurrencies, prior to the pandemic, everyone was excited about Bitcoin and its multitude of potentials. However, a day after COVID-19 was officially announced by the World Health Organization as a pandemic, the rate of return to Bitcoin dropped by an unheard-of one-day decline of-46.5%, and people started to rethink the prospects of Bitcoin. A day after this steep decline, Bitcoin recovered and started a sustained bull run which lasted for almost a year and even posted an all-time high daily uptick of 59.6%. By the end of July 2021, the price reached its all-time high but lost more than half of it at the end of the sample period. This study aims to empirically analyze the risk-return profile and the market efficiency of Bitcoin utilizing a 1,306-day data set conveniently subdivided into pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The general conclusion of the study is: During the pandemic, Bitcoin is extremely volatile and does not subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis. © 2023 by De La Salle University.
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This paper investigates the extreme dependence and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all currencies. Moreover, when analysing risk spillovers from Bitcoin to currencies, we find that Bitcoin exercises significant power over most currencies, with the South African rand and Brazilian real holding both the highest downside and upside risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period, respectively. When considering risk spillovers from currencies towards Bitcoin, the Japanese yen exhibits the highest downside spillovers. Importantly, we find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements. • We study dependencies between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. • We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all of the fiat currencies. • Bitcoin exercises significant power over most of the considered currencies. • We find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
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Bitcoin market had a significant momentum phenomenon before the launch of Futures, and then it turned into an insignificant reversal effect. After Covid-19 appeared, the momentum effect and reversal effect disappeared. The advent of bitcoin futures has increased how investors respond to information. With the outbreak of COVID-19, investor interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset has increased the effectiveness of the price. We estimate the speed of signal diffusion in the bitcoin market, and the results support that effective response to information is the essential mechanism for the disappearance of momentum effect.
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This study examines the tendency of short-term return spillover across Bahrain stocks, bitcoin, and other commodity assets factoring in the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using the daily returns of Bahrain All Shares Index, bitcoin, crude oil, and gold futures from January 2018 to March 2022. The results showed a persistent unidirectional short-term spillover of return from the Bahrain stock market to the futures gold market for both the period before and during the pandemic. Moreover, the results also showed that the significant positive shock in the bitcoin returns as granger-caused by the returns of the Bahrain stock market is only during the period before the pandemic. Finally, a significant negative contemporaneous short-term effect on the crude oil market returns can be statistically explained by the shocks in the Bahrain stock market only during the COVID-19 period. © 2023 IGI Global. All rights reserved.
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The paper examines market co-movement between pairs of financial assets in the time-frequency domain. Recent finance literature confirms the integration of cryptocurrencies and financial assets, which may bring more investments with the possibility of surplus liquidity in the cryptocurrency segment, leading to financial instability. The novelty of this paper is examining the integration of cryptocurrencies and the indices of equity, sustainability, renewable energy, and crude oil for the daily observations from 2015 to 2021 by using the wavelet coherency method. The empirical results signify no integration in the short-term scales and grow stronger in the medium-term scales, especially during the COVID-19 period, and further exhibit weaker heterogeneous associations in the long-term scales. However, the sustainability, clean energy indices follow similar dynamics of the equity market and crypto pairs. In contrast, the global crude oil index showcases the minor integration with cryptocurrencies compared with other traditional asset classes. Hence, the cryptocurrency market fails to confirm the safe haven features, especially during the COVID-19 periods (Medium-term), which facilitate the domestic and international investors expecting to hedge their price risk in equity markets using cryptocurrencies may have to look for short-term. The lead-lag heterogeneous effects of the asset-pairs may pave arbitrage opportunities for investors.
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PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to global economic policy uncertainty, which has increased the need to investigate ways to mitigate the uncertainty. This study aims to examine the potential of cryptocurrencies as a hedge and safe haven avenue against economic policy uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the behavior of the five leading cryptocurrencies in relation to country-level and group-level economic policy uncertainty indices, as measured by the text-based method developed by Baker et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131, 1593-1636). The research covers a broad range of emerging and developed economies from July 2013 to September 2020. The study employs the approach of Narayan et al. (Economic Modelling, 2016, 53, 388-397) to examine the hedging and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies.FindingsThis study finds that the top cryptocurrencies play a hedging role against economic policy uncertainty, with some exceptions. Additionally, there is evidence to support the idea that cryptocurrencies can serve as a safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, investors may benefit from using cryptocurrencies as a risk-management avenue during times of uncertainty.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing literature by testing the cryptocurrencies' hedging and safe haven properties in a new way, by analyzing their lead and lag behaviors using a recent and innovative approach. Additionally, it examines a wide range of emerging and advanced markets, providing insight into the potential of using cryptocurrencies as a risk mitigation avenue.
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To measure the diversification capability of Bitcoin, this study employs wavelet analysis to investigate the coherence of Bitcoin price with the equity markets of both the emerging and developed economies, considering the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent Russia-Ukraine war. The results based on the data from January 9, 2014 to May 31, 2022 reveal that compared with gold, Bitcoin consistently provides diversification opportunities with all six representative market indices examined, specifically under the normal market condition. In particular, for short-term horizons, Bitcoin shows favorably low correlation with each index for all years, whereas exception is observed for gold. In addition, diversification between Bitcoin and gold is demonstrated as well, mainly for short-term investments. However, the diversification benefit is conditional for both Bitcoin and gold under the recent pandemic and war crises. The findings remind investors and portfolio managers planning to incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios as a diversification tool to be aware of the global geopolitical conditions and other uncertainty in considering their investment tools and durations.
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In April 2020, the U.S. government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades of size $1,200, which is the modal EIP amount. We find similar increases in trading for other countries that paid out stimulus checks. We estimate that the EIPs have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar-Bitcoin trading pair, increasing buy volume by 3.8% and the price by 0.6%. We also find that demand for Bitcoin is highly price inelastic compared with the demand for stocks. We suggest the demographic characteristics that make people more resilient to the COVID19 economic shock-single, computer literate, and educated-are also characteristics of people who are more interested in Bitcoin.
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This paper adopts an interactive network approach to investigate the factors driving the carbon footprint of Bitcoin, a negative aspect of cryptocurrencies. Our findings demonstrate that the dynamics of Bitcoin prices, including both returns and volatility, have a significant impact on the system comprising carbon emissions, energy prices, carbon prices, and financial indicators. Particularly during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic period, the spillover effects are observed to be particularly strong. Furthermore, we find that the dynamics of Bitcoin prices play a crucial role in driving its associated carbon emissions.
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We test the hedge property of non-fungible token (NFT) coins against equity market fluctuations and compare it with the hedge property of Bitcoin. We employ daily the returns of Bitcoin;three NFT coins, namely Theta, Enjin Coin and Decentraland, and three equity market indices: S&P 500, NASDAQ and CAC 40, ranging from 18 January 2018 to 12 January 2021. We estimate the hedge effectiveness of the three NFT coins and Bitcoin against stock market fluctuations. Our results suggest that NFT coins are a better hedge against equity market fluctuations than Bitcoin.
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Everybody is talking about cryptocurrencies. These digital tokens, which started in a one-asset market, have swiftly ballooned into a massive and diverse "cryptomarket. " The cryptomarket is still mostly unregulated, but this is about to change. With President Biden's adoption of the Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets, regulatory initiatives are being adopted abroad, and global regulation looms ahead. In light of the expected regulatory changes, two important questions emerge: is there a clear rationale for legal intervention in the cryptomarket? And if so, what type of regulation is optimal?This Article is the first to consider how to regulate the cryptomarket through an empirical analysis of how the COVID-19 crisis affected the cryptomarket. We take a two-step approach to answer these pivotal questions. First, we analyze empirical evidence from the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic to better understand the risks posed by the cryptomarket when a crisis emerges. Second, we apply a law-and-economics approach to identify which market failures are consistent with the data and derive novel regulatory lessons. Our empirical analysis reveals an interesting pattern: investors initially shifted funds to the cryptomarket when the pandemic erupted, but then made a U-turn and diverted funds out of cryptocurrencies, leading to a plunge in the market. We maintain that such investor behavior can have both rational and behavioral explanations, which in turn affects the optimal choice of regulation.Accordingly, we map each rational and behavioral explanation onto potential market failures by surveying different possible interpretations of our findings, such as substitution effects between traditional markets and the cryptomarket, exploitation of investors in the form of pump-and-dump schemes, and other criminal activities. We then discuss how each type of failure can serve as justification for regulation and derive regulatory lessons on how to best intervene in the cryptomarket depending on the source of the market failure.
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Bubbles in asset prices have attracted the attention of economists for centuries. Extreme increases in asset prices, followed by their sudden decline, create a turbulent effect on the economy and even invite crises in time. For this reason, some measurement techniques have been employed to investigate the price bubbles that may occur. This study explores the possible speculative price bubbles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin cryptocurrencies, compares them with the pre-and post-COVID-19 period, and examines asymmetric causality relationships between variables. Therefore, we analyzed the price bubbles of these cryptocurrencies using the closing price for daily data between 16.01.2018 and 31.12.2021 by the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. In this context, 1446 observations, 723 of which were before COVID-19 and 723 after COVID-19, were employed in the study. Looking at the SADF analysis results, we detected 103 price bubbles before COVID-19 for the three cryptocurrencies, while we determined 599 price bubbles after COVID-19. The common finding in the asymmetric causality test results is that there is a causality relationship between the negative shocks faced by one cryptocurrency and the positive shocks faced by the other cryptocurrencies.
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The pandemic and subsequent changes in various spheres of human activity have also transformed consumer behavior, particularly in the cryptocurrency market. The article is aimed at identifying the priority directions of transformations taking place in the cryp-tocurrency market in the conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic under the influence of certain groups of factors. System and network approaches to understanding the cryp-tocurrency market have been identified. The cryptocurrency market is considered from a functional and institutional point of view. From a functional point of view, the crypto-currency market is a set of economic relations in cyberspace regarding cryptocurrency mining, initial coin offering (ICO) and circulation of cryptocurrencies based on the laws of supply and demand. From an institutional point of view, the cryptocurrency market is a set of participants in virtual currency schemes who carry out cryptocurrency trans-actions. The following signs of cryptocurrency market segmentation are justified such as those depending on the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency;on the nature of the crypto asset's movement;on operations carried out on the market;on the region;on consumers of services. Factors that influence the functioning of the cryptocurrency market are systematized according to the following groups: macroeconomic, price, en-vironmental, geographic, market, behavioral and technological. The influence of gold, oil prices, the daily number of Covid-19 cases and deaths from Covid-19, the MSCI ACWI global stock index, the iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF, the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index on the Bitcoin exchange rate is revealed. The trends in the crypto-currency market development in the post-war period are justified, namely the growth of investors' interest in cryptocurrencies against the background of the initial coin offer-ing collapse;growth of payments in cryptocurrencies;strengthening the regulatory landscape on a global and national scale;integration of the cryptocurrency market with traditional finance;attracting non-typical participants to the cryptocurrency business;expansion of participants in the infrastructure of the cryptocurrency market due to the rapid cryptocurrency market development, in particular, due to the production of equip-ment for its operation.
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PurposeThis article unveils first the lead–lag structure between the confirmed cases of COVID-19 and financial markets, including the stock (DJI), cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and commodities (crude oil, gold, copper and brent oil) compared to the financial stress index. Second, this paper assesses the role of Bitcoin as a hedge or diversifier by determining the efficient frontier with and without including Bitcoin before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe authors examine the lead–lag relationship between COVID-19 and financial market returns compared to the financial stress index and between all markets returns using the thermal optimal path model. Moreover, the authors estimate the efficient frontier of the portfolio with and without Bitcoin using the Bayesian approach.FindingsEmploying thermal optimal path model, the authors find that COVID-19 confirmed cases are leading returns prices of DJI, Bitcoin and crude oil, gold, copper and brent oil. Moreover, the authors find a strong lead–lag relationship between all financial market returns. By relying on the Bayesian approach, findings show when Bitcoin was included in the portfolio optimization before or during COVID-19 period;the Bayesian efficient frontier shifts to the left giving the investor a better risk return trade-off. Consequently, Bitcoin serves as a safe haven asset for the two sub-periods: pre-COVID-19 period and COVID-19 period.Practical implicationsBased on the above research conclusions, investors can use the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases to predict financial market dynamics. Similarly, the work is helpful for decision-makers who search for portfolio diversification opportunities, especially during health crisis. In addition, the results support the fact that Bitcoin is a safe haven asset that should be combined with commodities and stocks for better performance in portfolio optimization and hedging before and during COVID-19 periods.Originality/valueThis research thus adds value to the existing literature along four directions. First, the novelty of this study lies in the analysis of several financial markets (stock, cryptocurrencies and commodities)' response to different pandemics and epidemics events, financial crises and natural disasters (Correia et al., 2020;Ma et al., 2020). Second, to the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that examine the lead–lag relationship between COVID-19 and financial markets compared to financial stress index by employing the Thermal Optimal Path method. Third, it is a first endeavor to analyze the lead–lag interplay between the financial markets within a thermal optimal path method that can provide useful insights for the spillover effect studies in all countries and regions around the world. To check the robustness of our findings, the authors have employed financial stress index compared to COVID-19 confirmed cases. Fourth, this study tests whether Bitcoin is a hedge or diversifier given this current pandemic situation using the Bayesian approach.
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This chapter attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of the ongoing technological disruption in the finance world. There is no denying that technology has already brought disruption of unprecedented scale and type in terms of bringing innovative solutions like never seen before in the financial sector. The disruptive innovation like P2P lending, Crowdfunding, Cryptocurrency, Regtech, Insurtech mobile payment, etc. has changed the way traditional financial institutions used to operate. Against such a backdrop, this chapter attempts to provide an overview of this disruption. The chapter also explores how these innovations have brought changes in the working cultures among financial institutions. The study suggests, based on the analysis of facts and figures that the disruptive technology has brought positive changes in the society in terms of delivering valuable stimulus and financial aid to the vulnerable and affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of the study further suggest that the Fintech disruption has been a blessing in disguise for the overall growth and development of the finance community. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
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The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to investors in the crude oil market. Furthermore, investors have an increasing need to find a safe haven in their investment portfolios when facing unprecedented risks in crude oil markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a review of the literature, there are contradictory findings on which investment is the safer haven for the oil market. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate whether bitcoin is a safer haven for the crude oil market than the commonly used gold during the COVID-19 pandemic. Three spillover measurements based on the time, and frequency domains, and a network framework are employed to quantify the return spillover effects among bitcoin, gold and three major crude oil futures markets. We divide the sample into two periods, pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19. The results show that bitcoin has a weak safe-haven effect on the crude oil market only over a short period, while gold maintains a good safe-haven ability for crude oil futures across various time horizons (frequencies), both before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study have important implications for policy-makers, crude oil producers and global investors. In particularly, investors cannot ignore the importance of bitcoin and gold in selecting more profitable portfolio policies when searching for safe-haven assets.
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This paper examines the relationship between investor fear in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin prices by considering the potential effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the period of May 5, 2018 and December 10, 2020. The existence of structural changes in the time series for the full sample reveals a non-constant causality between fear sentiment and Bitcoin prices, which leads us to apply a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality test. Our results show that both negative and positive interactions between fear sentiment and Bitcoin prices occur during several subperiods. The nature of these interactions changes significantly before and during the pandemic. Thus, we contribute to the fast-growing literature on the financial effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic, as well as to the debate on whether to classify Bitcoin as a new asset, speculative investment, currency, or safe haven asset.